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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - January 2003
Date issued: January 27, 2003
A. Summary
A combination of seasonally cool temperatures and some sporadic precipitation from late December through mid-January has eased short-term drought conditions over most of New Mexico and parts of Arizona. However, above-average precipitation, historically associated with El Niņo events, has not materialized over most of the Southwest.Snowpack
is below average over most of the Southwest (with the exception of northeastern
New Mexico). In addition, low snowpack over much of Wyoming, Utah, and
Colorado has led forecasters to predict lower than average spring and
summer streamflow for the Colorado River at Lake Powell. Forecasts for
the Rio Grande Basin range from 65-106% of average, depending upon the
gauge.
El Niņo
conditions weakened during the past month. El Niņo is predicted to continue
through February and weaken considerably during the spring months.
Seasonal
climate forecasts continue to indicate fairly high confidence in increased
probabilities of above-average precipitation across most of Arizona
and New Mexico for February through April. The above-average precipitation
pattern, based chiefly on El Niņo-related historical probabilities and
model results, is according to NOAA, "still the best bet, but it is
by no means assured.
Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average temperature for western Arizona during the coming months.
Hydrological (long-term) drought is still a major concern for the Southwest. Most reservoirs continue to be at far below average levels. "Some areas will continue to see low water supplies, even if normal or slightly above-normal precipitation occurs," (Douglas Lecomte, NOAA Climate Prediction Center).
Bottom line: Short-term drought is expected to ease in the Southwest (winter into early spring months). Some degree of long-term drought is likely to persist in the Southwest (spring into summer months). Water supply, streamflow, and fire danger will be of increasing concern if late winter-early spring precipitation does not materialize.