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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2009
Date issued: February 25, 2009
A. Summary
The February 25, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [February 2009 PDF, 3 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Temperature – Western Arizona has recently been cooler than average, while New Mexico is 2 to 4 degrees warmer than average over the last 30 days.
Precipitation – Winter storms that brought significant precipitation to western Arizona bypassed New Mexico, leaving extremely dry conditions.
Drought – Two cold and wet storms moved across Arizona in December, improving short-term drought status in the Little Colorado River and the Aguafria watersheds. In southern New Mexico, drought conditions worsened between January and February.
ENSO – Weak La Niña conditions were present again this month across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but the current La Niña conditions may be short lived.
Snow – Above-average snowpack persisted into mid-February across much of the high country in Arizona and New Mexico. Many SNOTEL locations are reporting above-average snow water content (SWE) in Colorado and below average SWC in Utah.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts extending into the summer indicate most of the West has increased chances of above-average temperatures. Precipitation forecasts through May call for increased chances of below-average precipitation in the Southwest, with less predictable conditions for the summer forecasts.
The Bottom Line – While winter conditions in eastern New Mexico resemble a La Niña, year most of Arizona and northwest New Mexico have experienced numerous storms. As a result, the Colorado River and Rio Grande watersheds have received more precipitation than average—snow accumulation in the higher elevations of these areas are above average. Streamflow forecasts suggest that these watersheds will have slightly above-average spring and summer flows.
| A note from the Editor
CLIMAS launched the Southwest Climate Outlook in 2003 in response to a need for more accessible and understandable Southwest-specific climate information. Since then, readers have played a vital role in shaping how and what information is presented. That collaboration continues. In September 2008, CLIMAS issued an online survey and received 118 responses that provided valuable comments and suggestions. Responses revealed that the core of the Southwest Climate Outlook is useful, but they also illuminated several ways to improve the publication. Among these were concerns that the summaries for the Colorado Plateau region in northern Arizona and New Mexico can be misleading because they rely on a limited number of weather stations. Other comments highlighted ways to improve the temperature and precipitation verification pages and the feature article content and style. While the bulk of the monthly outlook will remain the same, we will attempt to address readers’ comments. To begin, the feature article will be slightly shorter and the style will vary, at times providing literature reviews, roundtable interviews, and news articles. We will communicate each change and encourage your feedback. – Zack Guido | This month's cover photo
The mountains near Snowbird ski area in Utah received about two feet of snow in the 24 hours prior to this photo, taken on February 10. Many of the Utah SNOTEL locations, where snow-water conditions are measured, currently have near-average snow water content (SWC). In the Colorado mountains, which supply the majority of water to the Colorado River, SWC is slightly higher (see Figure 8) |
Source: Zack Guido
| B. Recent Conditions > |