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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Deborah Bathke, New Mexico State Climatologist
Ashley Coles, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director of Outreach
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2008

Date issued: February 27, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Wet conditions in December and January have resulted in marked improvements in short-term drought across Arizona. New Mexico has missed many of these storms with most of the southeastern corner of the state only observing 25 percent of average precipitation in the past thirty days.

Temperature – Temperatures have generally been below-average across most of Arizona and northern New Mexico over the past thirty days. Southeast New Mexico has been relatively warm, with temperatures measuring above-average for the same period.

Precipitation – Much of Arizona and northern New Mexico observed very wet conditions over the past thirty days with many locations reporting 150 to 200 percent of average. Southeastern Arizona and much of southern New Mexico have been drier, with less than 100 percent of average precipitation observed.

ENSO – La Niña conditions strengthened this past month with sea surface temperatures over 2 degrees Celsius below-average in the central Pacific Ocean and the Southern Oscillation Index falling to -1.9 by the end of January. Forecasts indicate a strong likelihood that La Niña conditions will persist into the spring.

Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts continue to project dry and warm conditions across the Southwest into the spring. The La Niña event is to blame for the below-average precipitation forecast and for the above-average temperature forecast.

The Bottom Line – Wet conditions across much of Arizona continued into January due to a persistent storm track . Southeast Arizona and much of southern New Mexico has missed out on the precipitation from these recent storms. This has prompted an expansion of abnormally dry drought status across the region on the National Drought Monitor. The current La Niña event is expected to persist into the spring.