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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Casey Thornbrugh, CLIMAS Graduate Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - February
2007
Date issued: February 21, 2007
A. Summary
The February 21, 2007 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [February 2007 PDF, 2.53 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought – Drought conditions persist in Arizona due to below-average precipitation so far this winter while most of New Mexico remains drought-free.
Temperature – Over the past month, temperatures in the Southwest have been 3–6 degrees F cooler than average.
Precipitation – Precipitation has been below average in western Arizona but above average in most of New Mexico during the past month.
Climate Forecasts – Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average for most of the Southwest through August, while precipitation forecasts call for equal chances of below-average, average, or above-average precipitation.
El Niño – The current El Niño event is declining and a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected later this spring.
The Bottom Line – With the rapid decline of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, forecasters are no longer predicting increased chances of above-average precipitation in the Southwest.
Global warming update
Arizona has fared differently than New Mexico in terms of precipitation during this 2006–2007 winter season. In November, both states were warmer and drier than average, recording only 5–25 percent of average precipitation over most locations. A series of winter storms beginning in mid-December and continuing through January began to drive temperatures to several degrees below average. Most of the precipitation from these storms, however, affected more locations over New Mexico than in Arizona. Between November and January, most of Arizona recorded 50 percent or less of its average precipitation, and western Arizona remains at severe drought status. The drought status for New Mexico, on the other hand, has been lifted as a wet 2006 summer combined, with near-average to above-average precipitation, has improved conditions. For more info visit: Figure 3. U.S. Drought Monitor | This month's cover photo
Despite the rare snowstorm that hit Tucson last month (pictured above), most of Arizona is reporting less than 75 percent of average snowpack. However, these amounts are still far more than last winter’s record dry season. Source: Mike Crimmins, UA Cooperative Extension |
| B. Recent Conditions > |