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Grassland dynamics shift with climate fluctuations (PDF, 159 KB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2006
Date issued: February 20, 2006
A. Summary
Drought – Extreme drought conditions have developed in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist throughout the Southwest, due to winter forecasts of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.
- The extreme lack of snowpack in most of the basins in Arizona and southern New Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of well below average for 2006.
- Drought conditions improved from last year, but the large Colorado River reservoirs, Elephant Butte, and other reservoirs in New Mexico remain below average.
Fire Danger – The abundant grass crop produced last winter has cured into fine dry fuel in the Southwest, raising the prospect of an early start to a very active fire season.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Almost all of the Southwest has been drier than average since the start of the water year, especially during the last three months.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures through August 2006, and below-average precipitation through May 2006.
El Niño – Weak La Niña conditions are expected over the next three to six months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist over most of the Southwest.
Drought & fire danger in the Southwest
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The ongoing drought strengthened its grip on the Southwest over the past winter—a winter that’s shaping up to be one of the driest and warmest on record. Last year’s wet winter and spring gave most of the Southwest some needed, but temporary, relief, as reservoir levels increased and forests revived somewhat. Last year’s moisture produced an abundant crop of grasses, which is rapidly curing in this year’s warm dry weather. The grass crop has become a blanket of fine dry fuel, very easily ignited, and capable of carrying fire rapidly from rangeland into timber country and urban areas. This year Arizona’s “February Fire” burned over 4,000 acres near Payson, raising the specter of an early and active Southwest fire season.
| B. Recent Conditions > |