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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - February 2004
Date issued: February 26, 2004
A. Summary
Highlights
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
• All New Mexico reservoirs are at well below-average levels, although small gains have been made at Elephant Butte reservoir.• Storage in the major Colorado River reservoirs is still below average and continues to fall.
Precipitation – Recent precipitation should bring
shortterm drought relief to Arizona and northern New Mexico.
Water year precipitation for most of the Southwest is still below average.
Since January 2004, there have been increases in precipitation and percent
of average snow water content. However, snowpack is still quite low
for this time of year for most of Arizona and New Mexico.
Temperature – During the past 30 days, temperatures
have been below average across the Southwest. Last month’s temperature
outlook did not anticipate below-average temperatures across our region.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate
considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across
Arizona and New Mexico through the spring and summer months. Precipitation
forecasts do not suggest strong probability anomalies for either above-
or below-average precipitation. The U.S. Drought Outlook suggests improvement
in drought conditions for Arizona and northern New Mexico.
ENSO – There is a slightly better-than-average
chance of a weak El Niño episode developing in 2004, but ENSO
conditions will likely remain neutral during the first half of 2004.
The
Bottom Line
In the absence of exceptional precipitation during the next month, hydrological drought will persist in the Southwest.
• The most likely scenario is that, despite recent precipitation in the Southwest, there is no indication that most of the Southwest will receive drought-ending precipitation during the next several months. Multi-year soil moisture deficits make it difficult to anticipate the effects of above-average precipitation and snow in northern New Mexico and the Upper Rio Grande Basin. Recent precipitation events will help delay the onset of the fire season. The effects of above-average precipitation in parts of the Upper Colorado River Basin will not be felt until snowmelt during late spring and early summer.• The worst case scenario is that the storms tracking across the Southwest do not yield substantial precipitation. A return to above-average (long-term trend) temperatures, combined with low-yield precipitation, would result in continued soil moisture and reservoir depletion by the beginning of summer 2004. In Arizona, neutral ENSO conditions most often result in below-average precipitation.
• The best case scenario is that short-range forecasts for continued storminess in the Southwest are correct and result in substantially increased mountain snowpack. The probability of La Niña and exceedingly dry conditions developing is exceedingly low, and that’s good news!