Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2003

Date issued: February 26, 2003

A. Summary

A combination of warmer-than-average temperatures and almost no precipitation from late December through mid-February has contributed to the persistence of hydrological and climatological drought over most of New Mexico and Arizona, despite mid- and late-February El Niño storms that eased short-term drought in some areas.

Snowpack is below average over most of the Southwest (with the exception of northeastern New Mexico). Central Arizona snowpack is at less than 25 percent of average levels. Conditions may improve as more El Niño storms move through the region.

El Niño conditions weakened during the past month. El Niño is predicted to continue through April, and a return to near-normal conditions is forecast for the late spring and summer.

Seasonal climate forecasts continue to indicate fairly high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average precipitation across most of Arizona and New Mexico in March. Spring and summer forecasts, however, are uncertain not only for the Southwest but also for most of the United States.

Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average temperature in southwestern Arizona during the coming months.

Hydrological (long-term) drought is still a major concern for the Southwest. For most of Arizona and New Mexico, reservoir levels remain below average, and several reservoirs (e.g., Painted Rock Dam in Arizona and Lake Avalon in New Mexico) are empty.

Bottom line: Short-term drought is expected to ease in the Southwest. However, some degree of long-term hydrological drought is likely to persist in the region (spring into summer months). Water supply, stream flow, and fire danger will be of increasing concern if late winter-early spring precipitation does not materialize.

B. Recent Conditions >