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Southwestern
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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - December
2003
Date issued: December 22, 2003
A. Summary
Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest. All New Mexico reservoirs are at well below average levels. Storage in the major Colorado River reservoirs is still below average.
Water-year precipitation for most of the Southwest is below average. Moreover, precipitation is below average for most of the Colorado River Basin. Extreme and exceptional drought conditions continue across northern Arizona and most of New Mexico.
During the past 30 days, temperatures have been above average across much, but not all, of Arizona and New Mexico. In central and western Arizona, temperatures have been somewhat below average.
Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the winter and early spring months. January-March 2004 precipitation forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of below-average precipitation for Arizona and western New Mexico.
ENSO conditions remain neutral. However, there is a somewhat better than average chance of a weak El Niño episode developing in 2004.
Bottom line: Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest through the winter.
The most likely scenario is that above-average temperatures will continue throughout the winter and early spring. There is no indication that the Southwest will receive substantial precipitation during the next several months.
The worst case scenario is that neutral El Niño conditions do not bring even average precipitation to the Southwest. This would result in continued soil moisture and reservoir depletion by the beginning of summer 2004.
The best case scenario is that El Niño rebounds this winter and spring, and brings above-average precipitation; at least one forecast indicates a slight chance of above-average spring precipitation in New Mexico. In Arizona, occasionally a weak-moderate El Niño brings well above-average precipitation, but this has not occurred often in the historical record.