Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - December 2002

Date issued: December 23, 2002

A. Summary

El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during the past month. El Niño is predicted to continue into spring 2003, with peak strength during December 2002 or January 2003. Climatologists expect this El Niño to be weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño – one of the strongest ever recorded. The 2002-2003 El Niño is classified as moderate in strength.

Seasonal climate forecasts indicate fairly high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average precipitation across most of Arizona and New Mexico through the winter months.

Meteorological (short-term) drought conditions have eased over most of New Mexico, especially over eastern New Mexico. Late December precipitation should bring short-term relief to much of Arizona.

Hydrological (long-term) drought is still a major concern for the Southwest. Most reservoirs continue to be at well below average levels. Water supply issues will continue to be of concern in our region until we have received substantial above-average winter precipitation, especially snow.

Drought conditions are forecast to improve through March 2003, based on the expectations of El Niño-related precipitation during the winter and early spring.

Decision makers should be aware that Southwest winter precipitation during El Niño years is highly variable.

B. Recent Conditions >