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Two or 12 degrees warmer? Greenhouse gas emission scenarios that drive future climate outlooks
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute of the Environment.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Associate Editor
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2009
Date issued: August 26, 2009
A. Summary
The August 26, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [August 2009 PDF, 2.99 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– The extent of drought has increased in Arizona but decreased in eastern New Mexico, where drought severity also has decreased.
Temperature– Seasonal temperatures have been above average in most of the Southwest, with some record-breaking temperatures in Arizona during July.
Precipitation– Despite an early and wet monsoon burst across the southern portion of the Southwest, seasonal and water year precipitation totals are below average, except in southeastern New Mexico.
ENSO– A weak El Niño event is in progress and is expected to strengthen as fall approaches. El Niño usually increases the chances of above-average winter half-year precipitation in the region.
Climate Forecasts– Forecasts for the fall indicate temperatures similar to the warmest 10 years of the 1971–2000 observed conditions. Forecasts for the winter season indicate slightly increased chances of above-average precipitation in the southern half of the region.
The Bottom Line– After a timely onset, the monsoon has fizzled in most of the Southwest. Summer precipitation deficits have decreased rangeland and vegetation health across much of the region, with the major exception of southeastern New Mexico. Forecasts hold the promise of somewhat increased chances of winter season precipitation as an El Niño episode continues to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
| Climate Change Driving Birds North
A recent study by the National Audubon Society (NAS) concluded that a dramatic northward movement nationally has occurred among many bird species during the past four decades due to climate change. This includes new species arriving to the Southwest from Mexico, such as the flame-colored tanager, and species moving northto more favorable habitats in Utah and Colorado. Arizona is rated as one of the nation’s top five bird-watching destinations. While the state will be a new stomping ground for some birds, including the tanager, the overall bird community will experience declines in diversity for species living in forests, riparian areas, and eventually deserts (Arizona Daily Star, June 10). During the past 40 years, bird species nesting in Arizona mountains declined between 74 to 95 percent,according to the NAS study. A possible explanation for this exodus is that drought has stressed forests, making them less habitable. If temperatures continue to increase, more migrations out of and emigrations into the Southwest are expected. A critical question then becomes: Will the birds thrive in the new habitats? | This month's cover photo
Prickly Pear cacti are baring fruit in the Sonoran Desert, a process that begins in the summer months. |
Source: Randy Haas, The University of Arizona
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