A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

Phenology, citizen science, and Dave Bertelsen (PDF,753 KB)

More Information:

	Most Recent Summary
	Subscribe
	Glossary
	Feature Article Archive
	Related Links
	Disclaimer

Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Joe Abraham, CLIMAS Project Manager
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2008

Date issued: August 26, 2008

A. Summary

Drought – Monsoon precipitation and heavy rains from Hurricane Dolly have improved drought status for most of New Mexico; nearly all of Arizona remains abnormally dry with improvement in drought status occurring only in the Southeast.

Temperature – During the past 30 days, northern and western Arizona generally were 1–4 degrees F above average. In New Mexico, the higher elevations and southwestern areas saw 1–3 degree F below-average temperatures, while the remainder of the state had 1–3 degrees F above-average temperatures.

Precipitation – The White Mountains and the far southeastern corner of Arizona have been relatively wet. Central New Mexico has received 130–300 percent of normal precipitation and the Navajo Nation area has received only 5–25 percent of average.

Monsoon – Monsoon precipitation since July 1 has been above average in most of the Southwest; southeast Arizona and most of New Mexico have receive more than 125 percent of average rainfall, with some locations receiving more than 200 percent.

ENSO – ENSO is in a neutral phase with conditions characterized by slightly above-average eastern Pacific and slightly below-average western Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs); the entire basin has near-average SSTs.

Climate Forecasts – Slightly above-average temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico between May and July are mostly consistent with the long-lead temperature forecast.

The Bottom Line – Monsoon storms have delivered variable but copious amounts of precipitation. In many parts of New Mexico, monsoon rain is above average. These rains have helped New Mexico experience widespread short-term drought improvements. Extremely dry conditions in northern Arizona counties have harmed many crops.

New UA Research Rain in March and April is becoming more infrequent, lengthening the critical dry period between late winter storms and summer monsoon thunderstorms, according to new research from The University of Arizona. Stephanie McAfee, doctoral candidate in geosciences at the UA whose research is funded by CLIMAS, and Joellen Russell, an assistant professor of geosciences, compared the monthly position of the winter storm tracks, temperature and precipitation records from the western U.S., and atmospheric pressures at different altitudes for the period 1978 to 1998. The results suggest that westerly winds are shifting north, entraining several late winter storms and causing a decrease in the valuable late winter precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico. An absence of one or two storms in March and April may not sound like much, but it has huge impacts. A longer dry period adds greater stress for plants and animals, liquefies the mountain snow that feeds many rivers in the Southwest sooner than would occur otherwise, and parches wildland fuels, elevating the risk of large fires. McAfee’s e-mail address: smcafee@email.arizona.edu

This month's cover photo A barrel cactus in bloom in early August. This photo was taken on the Finger Rock Trail in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, Arizona. Source: Zack Guido