A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

Fall conference roundup (PDF, 216 KB)

More Information:

	Most Recent Summary
	Subscribe
	Glossary
	Feature Article Archive
	Related Links
	Disclaimer

Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director of Outreach
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Sara O’Brian, ISPE Assistant Staff Scientist
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2007

Date issued: August 30, 2007

A. Summary

Drought – Drought conditions remain at moderate to severe levels across Arizona again this month while most of New Mexico remains drought free. Summer rainfall has improved conditions in eastern Arizona, while below-average precipitation across eastern New Mexico raises the threat of drought conditions potentially developing over coming months.

Temperature – Temperatures were generally near average across Arizona while much of New Mexico was 2–4 degrees above average.

Precipitation – Much of Arizona has seen average to above-average precipitation over the past thirty days, while New Mexico generally saw below-average rainfall. Many upper elevation stations in Arizona have recorded 150–200 percent of average precipitation for the period.

Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona and southwestern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures through the remainder of the summer into the fall. Seasonal precipitation forecasts are calling for below-average precipitation for both Arizona and New Mexico through the fall into next winter due to stronger confidence in the development of La Niña conditions.

The Bottom Line – Summer monsoon rainfall has been widespread across Arizona and has helped improve short-term drought conditions. Below-average rainfall has started to impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico, raising the threat of drought conditions potentially developing over coming months in these areas. Stronger signals of a developing La Niña event are emerging in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to forecasts for below-average precipitation across the Southwest through the upcoming fall and winter seasons.