A. Summary
	B. Recent Conditions
	C. Forecasts
	D. Forecast Verification

NWS new local three-month temperature outlook and East Pacific hurricanes bring rain to Southwest (PDF, 734 KB)

More Information:

	Most Recent Summary
	Subscribe
	Glossary
	Feature Article Archive
	Related Links
	Disclaimer

Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension; and is funded by CLIMAS, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and the Technology and Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program through the SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center at the University of Arizona.

This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, SAHRA, and WSP disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extention, SAHRA, WSP, or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer

Ben Crawford, CLIMAS Research Associate
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Agent
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, CLIMAS Technical Specialist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Melanie Lenart, CLIMAS Research Associate

Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2006

Date issued: August 23, 2006

A. Summary

Drought – The monsoon rains have brought some drought relief to the Southwest, but the relief is likely to be temporary due to long-term moisture deficits.

• Drought conditions are expected to improve in the short-term in New Mexico and Arizona.

• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year.

Fire Danger – Heavy rainfall and high humidities since the start of the monsoon season have reduced the fire danger considerably, virtually ending the active fire season.

Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.

Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been above average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive flooding in many areas in Arizona and New Mexico.

Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures and equal chances of precipitation through November 2006.

El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through February 2007.

The Bottom Line – Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multiyear precipitation deficits.

Flooding The monsoon season has brought much-needed precipitation, but even in the Southwest sometimes the summer rains can be too much of a good thing. This year monsoon season brought extensive flooding to many areas. The floods have caused millions of dollars of damage in both New Mexico and Arizona. Hundreds of families in both states were forced to evacuate their residences, and extensive damage occurred to homes, businesses, farms, roads, canals, and other infrastructure. Governors Bill Richardson in New Mexico and Janet Napolitano in Arizona have both requested federal disaster assistance from President Bush. A few of the hardest hit areas in New Mexico were Las Cruces, Albuquerque, and Hatch, the “chilli-growing capital” of the Southwest. In Arizona Pima and Pinal Counties and the Havasupai reservation were severely impacted. For more on flooding see Recent Precipitation Figure 2...

This month's cover photo A roiling Rillito River reached record flow levels and spilled over its banks in some places in Tucson, Arizona, on July 31, 2006 after heavy rains filled normally dry washes and rivers. At one location, the Rillito was rushing at about 30,000 cubic feet per second, according to local news reports. Source: Steve Novy, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth