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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Alex McCord, Research Associate
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2005
Date issued: August 23, 2005
A. Summary
Drought – Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought continue in eastern and northern Arizona and in much of New Mexico.
- Moderate drought was reintroduced to southern New Mexico.
- Most regional reservoirs decreased in storage since the end of June, but they remain above last year’s levels.
Temperature – Average temperatures during the water year range from 3–4 degrees Fahrenheit below average to 3–4 degrees above average. The past 30 days were generally near to below average.
Precipitation – Much of the Southwest has received near to above-average precipitation during the water year. Precipitation departures in the past 30 days have ranged from 2 percent to over 400 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts – The long-lead temperature outlooks indicate increased chances of warmer-than-average conditions in the Southwest. There are generally no forecasted precipitation anomalies through February 2006 in the region.
El Niño – Probabilistic forecasts call for the current neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean to remain dominant through the middle of 2006.
The Bottom Line – Experts expect monsoonal precipitation to provide at least limited short-term improvement to drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico.
Record-setting Fire Season The 2005 wildland fire season was the worst in Arizona’s history, judging by the number of acres burned. The abundant winter rainfall produced a bumper crop of grasses, which “cured out” during the prolonged dry season before the monsoon finally started. This created an almost explosive fire hazard, particularly in the deserts and grasslands. To date 723,918 acres have burned, topping even the 2002 season, when 629,876 acres went up in smoke, including the disastrous Rodeo-Chedisky fire of 468,638 acres. This year’s largest fire was the Cave Creek Complex, which burned 248,310 acres north of Phoenix. Severely burned watersheds have caused greatly intensified flood runoff and sediment yield since 2002, contributing to the deaths of at least three people. |
