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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - August 2004
Date issued:August 24, 2004
A. Summary
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Storage has decreased in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico.
• Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at their lowest levels in over 30 years
• Far eastern New Mexico is no longer in short-term drought.
Precipitation – Precipitation for the water year remains below 90 percent of average through mid-August for much of the Southwest. Eastern New Mexico experienced wetter-than-average conditions over the past 45 days.
Temperature – New Mexico and eastern Arizona have been generally cooler than average over the past 30 days. Temperatures for the remainder of Arizona were slightly above average.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for the Southwest through January 2005. Climate forecasts are predicting slightly increased probability of wetter-than-average conditions for the Southwest during the winter.
El Niño – Conditions in the Pacific Ocean hint at the onset of a weak El Niño during the next several months.
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in Arizona through late autumn, while parts of New Mexico may see limited improvement.
Arizona has drafted its first drought plan and submitted it to the public for comment. The plan emphasizes ongoing drought monitoring, preparedness, and mitigation, in addition to well-coordinated drought emergency response. The drought planning process has been guided by experts from the National Drought Mitigation Center, with an emphasis on public participation at open Drought Task Force meetings during the past year. The draft drought plan and accompanying statewide conservation strategy document can be downloaded from http://www.water.az.gov/gdtf/. Comments can be submitted via e-mail (dtf@adwr.state.az.us). In addition, public comment on the plan will be sought throughout September at workshops (dates below). The public comment period ends September 24. Public Meetings |
Arizona Drought Plan