Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - August 2002

Date issued: August 21, 2002

A. Summary

Summer monsoon conditions have provided much-needed precipitation for the region, despite the majority of the precipitation thus far occurring chiefly in southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Monsoon moisture and increased humidity have reduced fire danger for most of the region. However, many of the areas experiencing the most extreme drought, for example northern Arizona and New Mexico, have not received substantial monsoon precipitation. Within areas of extreme drought, range conditions continue to degrade, and many localities have imposed water use restrictions.

Long-term climate outlooks indicate an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures for portions of the region in the coming months. However, increased probabilities of above-average precipitation are not likely to occur until as far off as December. Thus, severe drought will likely continue to grip the Southwest. With the exception of southern New Mexico, forecasts indicate there is less than a 30% chance of drought amelioration during the next 5 months in the region, and less than 10% chance of ending drought conditions entirely.

Forecasters now indicate that the early stages of a weak-to-moderate El Niño event have developed. The El Niño is expected to persist through the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. Based on instrumental records, the majority of El Niño events have brought greater than average precipitation to Arizona and New Mexico; thus, forecasts show a slight increase in the likelihood of above-average precipitation by the turn of the year. However, Southwest winter precipitation during El Niño years is highly variable, and weak El Niño events during the past 50 years have sometimes resulted in lower than average winter precipitation in our region.

B. Recent Conditions >