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Climate data 2: the ins and outs and where to find what (PDF, 216 KB)
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Note: This work is published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University; and is funded by CLIMAS, and the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.
This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative , and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. Read full disclaimer
Mike Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
Stephanie Doster, ISPE Information Specialist
Dan Ferguson, CLIMAS Program Manager
Gregg Garfin, ISPE Deputy Director for Outreach
Zack Guido, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
Rebecca Macaulay, Graphic Artist
Kristen Nelson, ISPE Associate Editor
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - April 2009
Date issued: April 24, 2009
A. Summary
The April 24, 2009 outlook is also available in a single, downloadable, printer-friendly file. [April 2009 PDF, 3.06 MB]
Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
Drought– Short-term drought conditions remained unchanged across northern Arizona, while worsening conditions were observed over the southeastern quarter of the state. For New Mexico, worsening drought conditions continued again this month; more than 60 percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought.
Temperature– The past 30 days brought a series of fairly dry cold fronts to the northern half of New Mexico and the northeast and northwest corners of Arizona, dropping temperatures as much as 3 degrees below average.
Precipitation– In the past 30 days, many parts of Arizona, and southern New Mexico had less than 25 percent of their average precipitation. Average precipitation since October 1 in many regions of both states has been less than 70 percent.
ENSO– The La Niña of 2008–2009 is almost over, and forecasts strongly support a quick move towards ENSO-neutral conditions over the next several months.
Climate Forecasts– The long-lead forecasts indicate the Southwest has increased chances for summer temperatures to be similar to the warmest 10 years of 1971–2000 and increased chances for precipitation through October to be similar to the wettest 10 years of 1971–2000.
The Bottom Line– Precipitation has been scant during the past 30 days. Mid-March to mid-April delivered less than 70 percent of average precipitation to most of the Southwest and only slightly more rainfall than mid-February to mid-March totals. As a result, drought conditions have expanded. Because April–June historically is very dry, the next sustained precipitation will likely not occur until the monsoon season Begins.
| New Forecast Verification Highlights
In response to feedback from readers, the Southwest Climate Outlook has changed the temperature and precipitation forecast verification highlights. The new highlights incorporate the Forecast Evaluation Tool, which uses a common statistical method—the Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS)—to verify forecasts. a one-page summary discusses the RPSS and its use for evaluating the official long-lead forecasts issued each month by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The new verification highlights presented here have three advantages over the highlights featured in past issues. First, readers will understand the historical accuracy of the most current forecasts, providing information that can be useful for decisions based on those forecasts. The highlights that had been used in the outlook verified previously issued forecasts against past conditions, but knowing the accuracy of a forecast issued four months ago provides little value for future decisions. Second, the forecast verification method is now better. The new highlights rely on statistical comparisons instead of visual inspection. And finally, readers can now view the verification for four different forecasts, whereas previously the outlook presented the verification of only the one-month lead time. | This month's cover photo
The new temperature and precipitation verification highlights incorporate a more sophisticated measure of forecast performance than the highlights featured in the past. The new highlights display color maps like this one that help readers visualize the historical accuracy of the forecasts. |
Source: Forecast Evaluation Tool
| B. Recent Conditions > |