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Will April rains bring May flames? (PDF, 1 MB)
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Note: The Southwest Climate Outlook is published monthly by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project at the University of Arizona. This work is funded, in part, by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Technology Research Initiative Fund of the University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program.
The Southwest Climate Outlook contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. Links to outside agencies or products do not constitute endorsement. Read full disclaimer
The Southwest Climate Outlook is jointly published each month by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project and the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
Mike Crimmins, Extension Agent
Gregg Garfin, CLIMAS Program Manager
Shoshana Mayden, Editor
Kristen Nelson, Assistant Editor
Rick Brandt, Graduate Research Assistant
Melanie Lenart, Research Associate
Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest Climate Outlook - April 2005
Date issued: April 26, 2005
A. Summary
Hydrological Drought – Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the Southwest.
• Much of western Arizona and a large portion of New Mexico are free of drought.
• Portions of northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico remain in severe drought.
• Arizona statewide reservoir storage is up 5 percent since last month. Storage in New Mexico is much above last year, but many reservoirs remain below 35 percent of maximum capacity.
Temperature – Water year temperatures have been up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in some areas, but the past 30 days were generally cooler than average.
Precipitation – The water year precipitation remains above average, but the past 30 days have been generally drier than average. Snow water content in northern New Mexico is above average, while it continues a rapid decrease farther south.
Climate Forecasts – Long-lead forecasts call for increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest. There are no forecasted precipitation anomalies in Arizona or New Mexico through October. Streamflow forecasts show near to above-average conditions for much of the Southwest and Colorado River Basin.
El Niño – Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the tropical Pacific Ocean, although El Niño chances remains above average.
The Bottom Line – Spring snowmelt will lead to increased runoff, above-average streamflow, increasing reservoir storage, and a further alleviation of hydrologic drought in the Southwest.
From Wildflowers to Wildfires
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Above-average winter rainfall across the Southwest has alleviated short-term drought conditions, but enhanced the risk of a different resource management concern—wildfire. The lush vegetation that now covers lower elevation areas across Arizona and New Mexico will turn into a potential fuel source after drying out later this spring. Winter rains promote the growth of annual plants that fill in otherwise bare low-desert areas, which provides fuel continuity across the landscape. Spring wildfires can then spread quickly and grow to large sizes. Upper elevation locations are expected to see below-normal wildfire activity because of the wet winter conditions.