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Forecasts and Outlooks > Archive
Southwest
Climate Outlook - April 2003
Date issued: April 24, 2003
A. Summary
Despite recent cool storms passing through our region during late March and mid-April, long-term (hydrological) drought will continue to be a major concern for the Southwest during the upcoming months. For all of Arizona and New Mexico, reservoir levels remain below average. Snowpack is below average for this time of year at most stations in the Southwest (with the exception of northeastern New Mexico). Below-average streamflow is forecasted for the Colorado River at Lake Powell. The New Mexico Drought Monitor Committee has declared emergency status for the Rio Grande and the Pecos Rivers. Below-average streamflow is forecasted for the Upper Gila River Basin. Water users who depend on Upper Gila stream diversions for irrigation are expected to experience shortages later this season.
Fire danger is expected to be above normal across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico, especially on mid-level slopes and grasslands. Dry weather characteristic of the pre-monsoon period will increase fire danger across our region.
Long-term drought will have lingering soil moisture effects on agriculture over a large portion of New Mexico. At present, 50 percent of New Mexico winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. Fifty-two percent of New Mexico range and pasture land is considered to be in poor to very poor condition.
Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate high confidence in increased probabilities of above-average temperature across Arizona and New Mexico during the summer months.
El Niņo conditions continued to weaken. This El Niņo is virtually over. There is considerable uncertainty in El Niņo forecasts for the rest of 2003. Neutral Pacific Ocean conditions are likely this summer; however, La Niņa conditions might develop this winter.
Bottom line: Although short-term drought conditions have ameliorated conditions for most of the Southwest, this drought is not over. Water supply, streamflow, and soil moisture will continue to be of concern for the foreseeable future.