This summary is excerpted and edited from the October 15 Seasonal Drought Summary produced by the CPC and written by forecaster Anthony Artusa.

Across the Southwest drought has expanded and intensified during the summer and early fall. For the past 90 days, the weak summer monsoon rainfall caused rainfall deficits of 2 to 6 inches in many parts of the Southwest. For most of Arizona, this corresponds to 25 to 50 percent of average rainfall. Northern Arizona in particular received only 10 to 25 percent of its average rainfall in the past three months. Current predictions suggest the drought will continue through November and even January. A consensus of various soil moisture models and analytical tools provides reasonable—but not unanimous—support for the current drought outlook that suggests improvement for California and southern Arizona (Figure 10). The forecast also tilts the odds in favor of some improvement for central and northern Arizona. However, forecasters have low to moderate confidence in these outlooks.

Elsewhere in the US, heavy rains and mountain snows during the first half of October brought significant relief to many of the drought areas across the country, especially California. Short-term drought conditions in much of Texas have been eliminated due to recent rains. However, longer-term hydrologic impacts will remain for awhile, especially in southern Texas. Elsewhere, a series of frontal systems brought heavy rains to the East Coast, resulting in substantial mitigation of drought conditions. The same is true of the upper Midwest, although long-term drought areas in northwestern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota still need significant rain or snow. West of the Continental Divide in the Rocky Mountains, forecasts call for some drought improvement for northwest Nevada and Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. Despite precipitation expected during the last half of October, drought persistence is indicated for central Washington and northwest Montana.

More Information:
For more information, visit: http://www.drought.noaa.gov/.