Figure 8. Temperature Outlook (November 2009–April 2010)
Source: NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The NOAA–Climate Prediction Center (NOAA–CPC) long-lead temperature forecasts for the continental US show an increased probability that much of the West will experience warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the rest of fall and into winter. For Arizona, the forecast through January calls for a slight chance that temperatures will be similar to those of the warmest 10 years of the 1971–2000 observed record (Figure 8a). As the forecast proceeds into winter, there is still an increased probability that the Southwest will experience warmer-than-average temperatures, although the forecast for much of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico moves to equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures from December through the spring (Figures 8b–d).

Notes: These outlooks predict the likelihood (chance) of above-average, average, and below-average temperature, but not the magnitude of such variation. The numbers on the maps do not refer to degrees of temperature.

The NOAA-CPC outlooks are a 3-category forecast. As a starting point, the 1971–2000 climate record is divided into 3 categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring (i.e., equal chances, EC). The forecast indicates the likelihood of one of the extremes—above-average (A) or below-average (B)—with a corresponding adjustment to the other extreme category; the “average” category is preserved at 33.3 likelihood, unless the forecast is very strong.

Thus, using the NOAA-CPC temperature outlook, areas with light brown shading display a 33.3–39.9 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 26.7–33.3 percent chance of below-average temperature. A shade darker brown indicates a 40.0–50.0 percent chance of above-average, a 33.3 percent chance of average, and a 16.7–26.6 percent chance of below-average temperature, and so on.

Equal Chances (EC) indicates areas where the reliability (i.e., ‘skill’) of the forecast is poor; areas labeled EC suggest an equal likelihood of above-average, average, and below-average conditions, as a “default option” when forecast skill is poor.

More Information:
For more information and the most recent forecast images, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks
/color/churchill.html. Please note that this Web site has many graphics and may load slowly on your computer.

For IRI forecasts, visit: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/.