Calendar:
The Implications of La Niña and El Niño for Fire Management

A workshop sponsored by ISPE, CLIMAS, and LTRR
February 23-24, 2000, The University of Arizona

In late 1999, prompted by forecasts for a second dry La Niña winter, we invited representatives of the fire management, climate science, and fire research communities from throughout the western United States and Florida to workshop discussing the linkages between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), long-term climate variations, and wildfire regimes. Held in February 2000, the workshop developed a set of action items for promoting education about climate for fire managers, fostering communication between climatologists and fire managers and targeting research proposals to integrate concerns about fire, climate, and land management.

Download Proceedings

The full proceedings from the workshop are available in pdf format (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader). You can also view the table of contents and highlights from the proceedings below.

fireproc.pdf (1.66 MB).

If you need this publication in an alternative format, contact climas@email.arizona.edu.

Table of Contents

Foreword

Genesis of workshop
Design
Goals

Introductions and Welcome

Presentations

ENSO, Seasonal Climate Forecasting, and Uncertainty - Klaus Wolter

Seasonal Impacts of ENSO Variability and the North Pacific Oscillation - James O'Brien

Historical Teleconnections, Empirical Data, and Spatial Patterns - Kelly Redmond

Florida's Long-Range Fire Season Forecasts: Fire in Paradise - Scott Goodrick and Jim Brenner

Mid- and Long-range Forecasts and Fire Hazard Indices - Francis Fujioka

Weather and Climate Patterns That Affect Fuels and Flammability - Sue Ferguson

Overview of Current Uses of Climate/Weather Data and Forecasts For Fire/Fuels Management Indices - Sue Husari

Historical Fire and Drought Patterns in the Western United States - Tom Swetnam

Breakout Group Reports

Education and Communication

Data Needs for Short- and Long-Term Prediction and Analysis

Use of Climate and Fire Information in Integrated Land Management

Action Plan and Next Steps

Selected Highlights

Fire and Drought - The relationship between ENSO and fire occurrence is most notable in extreme events. Most of the links between La Niña and fire show up during the driest La Niña events...With a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to its positive phase by 1977, El Niños again became more predominant. Recent evidence indicating that a shift to negative PDO conditions may have begun around 1995 suggests that, if La Niñas again come to predominate over El Niños, we may be facing several decades of drier conditions in the Southwest. This could lead to the kinds of huge wildfire danger experienced in the Southwest in the 1950s. [From "Historical Fire and Drought Patterns in the Western United States"]

Area Burned per Year in Arizona and New Mexico Federal, State, and Private Lands Versus December to March Darwin-Tahiti Southern Oscillation Index

 

Florida's Fire Forecast - Florida wildfire activity is closely tied to ENSO conditions; this has been known since about 1990 to 1991. Generally, La Niñas, with characteristic cold SSTs, produces above average wildfire activity...Preliminary research results indicate that a switch to negative NPO conditions beginning in 1997 signaled a shift in climate-wildfire patterns...It appears, based on analysis of standardized SST anomalies, that the positive phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), combined with warm SSTs, resulted in relatively few large fires. Conversely, the negative NPO phase, with associated cold SSTs, may produce more large fires in the region. These results could prove spurious, but hold enough promise to warrant further study. [From "Florida's Long-range Fire Season Forecasts: Fire in Paradise"]

Climate and Weather Data - Better weather and climate data and forecasts are needed for two important reasons. First, the current estimate is that about 40 million acres of lands in the National Forest System are in elevated fire hazard. Second, the elevated fire hazard has contributed to increases in the number of firefighter fatalities as well as resource losses and escalating costs of suppressing large fires...Managers are now required to develop plans for a 100-year period, and information about weather and climate is important in assuring the effectiveness of those plans. For example, information about the effects of short-, medium- and long-range climate variation on fire regimes is essential. [From "Overview of Current Uses of Climate/Weather Data and Forecasts For Fire/Fuels Management Indices"]

Climate Patterns - Climate varies on timescales from months to centuries or more, and on spatial scales from the global to the micro-local. Increased knowledge about ENSO has led to improved seasonal forecasts. Research into other processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North American Monsoon is beginning to show up in forecasts as well. More generally, it is interesting to note that near-normal climate conditions are actually more difficult to forecast than are the extremes. [From "Historical Teleconnections, Empirical Data, and Spatial Patterns"]

Composite Precipitation Anomalies versus 1950-1995 Longterm Average

ENSO - La Niñas generally result in anomalously dry conditions in the Southeast and Southwest, but wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest...La Niñas are quite likely to produce a significant reduction in precipitation in the Southwest, whereas the record for El Niños is more variable...It is important to keep in mind, however, that El Niños and La Niñas are not directly opposite conditions, nor are they entirely linear in their behavior. [From "ENSO, Seasonal Climate Forecasting, and Uncertainty"]