Through engagement with a variety of agencies and stakeholders, we are developing methods, resources, and tools for incorporating climate change and non-stationarity into planning efforts. Through this project and leveraged activities, we are: a) developing and applying scenario planning to address uncertainty of climate change and other stressors; b) evaluating needs and approaches for system-wide climate literacy training of National Park staff; c) identifying the needs and capacities of the water resources sector related to climate change and non-stationarity; d) evaluating methods for combining paleoclimatological information with historical observations and climate change projections; e) communicating uncertainty of projections of Colorado River flows; f) supporting the National Climate Assessment.
To date, we have demonstrated a practical process for using scenario planning to consider climate change in the context of multiple stressors. the approach is now being used within the National Park Service. We have also developed a comprehensive curriculum for improving climate change literacy in the National Park Service.
Enquist, C., A. Bradley, M. Cross, G. Garfin, D. Gori, P. McCarthy, and R. Oertel, 2010. Jemez Mountains Climate Change Adaptation Workshop: Process, Outcomes and Next Steps. (Southwest Climate Change Initiative, April 2009 Workshop). Santa Fe: The Nature Conservancy: 41.
Feldman, D. and K. Jacobs. 2008. Making decision-support information useful, useable, and responsive to decision-maker needs. A Report by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: Asheville, North Carolina: 101-140.
Garfin, G., H. Hartmann, M. Crescioni-Benitez, T. Ely, J. Keck, J. Kendrick, K. Legg, and J. Wise. Climate Friendly Park Employees: The intermountain region's climate change training assessment. Park Science 28(1):
Garfin, G., K. Jacobs, and J. Buizer, 2009. Climate Change Adaptation Lessons from the Land of Dry Heat. In Webb, R., and Semmens, D., eds., Planning for an uncertain future—Monitoring, integration, and adaptation. Proceedings of the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5049: 292.
Garfin, G., K. Jacobs, and J. Buizer, 2008. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 89(25): 227.
Hartmann, H., 2008. Decision support for water resources management. In Macauley, M. (ed.) Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions. A Report by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. NASA Applied Science Program: Washington, DC: 45-55.
Jacobs, K., Garfin, G., Buizer, J., 2010. New Techniques at the Science-Policy Interface: Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector. Science and Policy, 36(10): 791-798. DOI: 10.3152/030234209X481969.
Mahmoud, M., Y. Liu, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart, T. Wagener, D. Semmens, R. Stewart, H. Gupta, D. Dominguez, F. Dominguez, D. Hulse, R. Letcher, B. Rashleigh, C. Smith, R. Street, J. Ticehurst, M. Twery, H. van Delden, R. Waldick, D. White, and L. Winter. 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environmental Modeling and Software 24(7): 798-808.
Rashleigh, B., D. White, H. van Delden, M. Twery, J. Ticehurst, R. Street, C. Smith, R. Letcher, D. Hulse, D. Dominguez, Y. Liu, T. Wagener, D. Semmens, R. Stewart, H. Gupta, M. Mahmoud, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart. 2008. Formal scenario development for environmental impact assessment studies. In Jakeman, A., Voinov, A., Rizzolli, A., and Chen S. (eds.) Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment-Volume 3. Elsevier: Amsterdam: 145-162.
McCarthy, P., C. Enquist, and G. Garfin, 2008. Mitigating Climate Change in the American Southwest. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 89(1): 3.
Neely, B., P. McCarthy, M. Cross, Enquist, C., G. Garfin, D. Gori, D. Hayward, and T. Schulz, 2010. Climate Change Adaptation Workshop for Natural Resource Managers in the Gunnison Basin: Summary. (Southwest Climate Change Initiative, December 2009 Workshop). Boulder: The Nature Conservancy: 45.