Climate change and variability can strongly control the population dynamics of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, altering their location and seasonality and possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. This project develops and implements a climate-based Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model to understand and project climate effects on mosquito population dynamics, developing results that will help climate-health scientists and public health decision makers better understand and project the role of climate in actual disease cases.
This project utilizes dynamic modeling (Morin and Comrie 2010) which relies on first principle processes to simulate mosquito population dynamics at the daily level as driven by climate and land cover inputs. Mosquito trapping is used to validate model and characterize mosquito habitats in Tucson. Also, interviews with public health officials are being used to understand how they conceptualize climate and disease in their health districts and the use of dynamic modeling as a tool.
The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) enables the simulation of mosquito populations driven by climate data. The model files for DyMSiM are available online, along with a website that contains user documentation and examples for how to use the tool. Online at: http://sites.google.com/site/dymsimmodel/home
1. Develop model capable of simulating mosquito population dynamics as well as disease transmission and stability characteristics, as governed by mosquito-borne disease ecology.
2. Determine condition conducive to vector-borne disease transmission as well as the effectiveness of control measures.
3. Provide a tool useful for both researchers in related fields and organizations involved in vector-borne disease control and surveillance.
Morin, C. 2009. Developing a Climate Driven Dynamic Mosquito Population Model with Applications to Global Warming Scenarios. Master's thesis, Geography, University of Arizona.
Morin, C. and Comrie, A.C. 2010. Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model. International Journal of Biometeorology 54: 517-529.