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Nov 2017 SW Climate Outlook - La Niña Tracker

Friday, November 17, 2017

Most models now suggest that a weak La Niña event has emerged (Figs. 1-2) and is likely to last through this winter. On Nov. 8, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology called for a 50-percent chance of La Niña forming in 2017, noting that while sea-surface temperatures had cooled, the cooling had stalled, whereas atmospheric indicators had shifted slightly toward weak La Niña. (read more)

SW Climate Outlook Nov 2017 - Climate Summary

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Precipitation & Temperature: October precipitation was below average to record driest in Arizona, with the driest conditions occurring in the southwestern corner of the state (Fig. 1a). In New Mexico, precipitation was average to above average in the eastern half of the state, and average to below average in the western half (Fig 1a). October temperatures were above average to much-above average across both Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 1b) except for small regions in the north and in eastern New Mexico. (read more)

SW Climate Outlook - ENSO Tracker - Oct 2017

Monday, October 23, 2017

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain generally within the range of ENSO-neutral but have shifted more towards La Niña conditions in the past month (Figs. 1-2). Most seasonal outlooks and forecasts reflect these changes, and continue to call for the formation of a La Niña event as the most likely outcome by the end of fall and continuing into this winter. (read more)

 

SW Climate Outlook Monsoon Recap - Oct 2017

Friday, October 20, 2017

The North American Monsoon was quiet for much of the Southwest through early July. The rest of July was active and numerous locations approached or set single-month precipitation records. August saw a widespread shutdown of monsoon activity across much of Arizona, which lasted for the rest of the official season. During the same period, New Mexico saw more consistent precipitation activity, including a last gasp in late September when a cluster of storms hit both central and far southern parts of the state. (read more)

 

SW Climate Outlook Oct 2017 - Climate Summary

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Precipitation & Temperature: September precipitation was much-below average to below average across central and southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, while northeastern New Mexico recorded above-average to much-above-average precipitation for the month (Fig. 1a). September temperatures were average to much-above average in New Mexico, and below average to much-above average in Arizona (Fig. 1b). (read more)

 

SW Climate Outlook Monsoon Tracker - Sept 2017

Friday, September 22, 2017

The North American monsoon was quiet for much of the Southwest through early July, but mid-July through early August saw an impressive run of storms. July was particularly active in southeast Arizona, where numerous locations approached or set single-month records for precipitation. Since early August, however, Arizona has experienced a widespread shutdown of monsoon activity, while New Mexico has seen more regular precipitation. (read more)

 

SW Climate Outlook - ENSO Tracker - Sept 2017

Friday, September 22, 2017

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators remain within the range of neutral but have shifted more towards La Niña conditions in the past month (Figs. 1-2). Seasonal outlooks and forecasts reflect these changes, and most now see La Niña conditions as the more likely outcome for fall 2017, with ENSO-neutral conditions mostly still favored for winter. (read more)

 

SW Climate Outlook Sept 2017 - Climate Summary

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Precipitation and Temperature: August precipitation ranged from much-below average to average across most of Arizona and New Mexico, except in eastern New Mexico where above-average to record-wettest conditions prevailed (Fig. 1a). August temperatures were average to much-above average in Arizona and most of New Mexico, with only the northeastern corner of New Mexico recording below-average temperatures (Fig. 1b). Temperatures during the June-July-August period have been mostly much-above average in Arizona and western New Mexico, and average to above average in eastern New Mexico (Fig. 2a). Year-to-date temperatures are persistently warmer than average, with much-above average and record-warmest conditions across nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2b). (read more)

Beginning to Understand Climate Change in the Kaipara Catchment

Thursday, September 14, 2017

I’ve tagged along on environmental monitoring patrols, ridden in logging trucks with forestry workers, played cow wrangler on a dairy farm, photographed coastal erosion from the back of a four wheel drive that smelled of turkeys, and attended a conference on the wellbeing of eels. I’ve had conversations on boats and beaches, in fields and farmhouses, by lakes, in rivers, cars and marae (meeting houses). This is what happens when an anthropologist is on the case. (read more)

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