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El Niño Tracker - January 2015

Friday, January 23, 2015

Just when it looked like we were getting a more definitive answer regarding El Niño, ongoing lack of cooperation on the part of the atmosphere continues to muddy forecasts moving into 2015. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain elevated across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1), and while temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are within the range of a weak El Niño event, they have declined in the past month (Fig. 2). It is a common refrain in forecast bulletins that a lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere is responsible for decreased confidence in an El Niño event this winter. Additionally, a lack of temperature gradient along the equatorial Pacific and little in the way of El Niño wind patterns further reduce confidence that a stronger event is on the horizon. (read more)

Jan 2015 SW Climate Podcast: 2014 Year in Review, and Stuck in El Limbo

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss the state of the climate in 2014, including the record year for Arizona and the near record year for New Mexico.  They also talk about weather systems that affected our most recent temperature and precipitation patterns, the ongoing uncertainty with El Niño, or as some have started referring to it, "El Limbo", and the state of precipitation and drought in the southwest.  They wrap things up looking at the seasonal outlooks and the projected trends for the coming year. (read more)

Nov 2014 SW Climate Podcast: A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward.  read more

El Niño Tracker Update - Late November 2014

Friday, November 21, 2014

From the Nov 20, 2014 Southwest Climate Outlook

The long-awaited El Niño event projected to develop during winter 2014 – 2015 has yet to send a decisive signal regarding an official start, but a number of factors have increased forecasters’ confidence that one will emerge. The strength of this event still remains in question, however with the most likely projection still centering on a weak or weak to moderate event (read more).

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